From jakke (via shortformblog):

France had the first round of its presidential election today. To no one’s surprise, Socialist candidate Francois Hollande leads incumbent Nicholas Sarkozy in the exit polls. However, horrible far-right Marine Le Pen is doing way better than was predicted by polling. What happened here? Was this a random sampling mishap, or are voters lying about their choice?
On Friday, five separate polling agencies released polls based on samples taken over Wednesday and Thursday (available here, here, here, here, and here). These should be reasonably close to how people actually voted, and since they’re all polling all of France at the same time they should be sampling the same distribution of voters. So based on those polls, what’s the likelihood of the exit poll outcome we saw today?
Oh the graph above, the bell curves represent what the last five polls predict, and the horizontal dashed lines indicate the actual exit poll results. For Hollande and Sarkozy, then polling did a good job; the polls are pretty close to the middle of the bell curve. For (despicable bigot) Le Pen, though, the actual vote share was way higher than what the polls predicted. What happened here? There are three possibilities:
The polling agencies all just randomly picked a sample without very many Le Pen voters. As you can see from this graph, this possibility is so far out at the end of the bell curve that it barely even registers.
Lots of people changed their votes over the weekend. Millions of French people woke up Sunday morning with their mind totally changed and marched out to vote for Le Pen even though previously they’d been set on another candidate. This is definitely possible, although Le Pen never touched 20% support in any poll in the last two months.
Voters are lying to pollsters because they don’t want to admit (even to a stranger) that they are the pathetic small-minded racists who would vote for Le Pen.
Almost certain that #3 is what’s going on here. This has scary implications for polling European elections, because it indicates that as voter dissatisfaction with the eurozone and the response of the mainstream parties to the ongoing crisis grows we might see some really unpleasant surprise election results over the next couple years.

Now it’s on to the second round runoff. Based on Le Pen’s strong showing, it seems the likelihood that Sarkozy sneaks through is somewhat higher (if you add the center-right Sarkozy’s vote with the far right Le Pen’s vote it almost comes to 45%)—although there were a lot of voters on the far left who might solidify into a Hollande victory. It’ll probably come down to voter turnout.

From jakke (via shortformblog):

France had the first round of its presidential election today. To no one’s surprise, Socialist candidate Francois Hollande leads incumbent Nicholas Sarkozy in the exit polls. However, horrible far-right Marine Le Pen is doing way better than was predicted by polling. What happened here? Was this a random sampling mishap, or are voters lying about their choice?

On Friday, five separate polling agencies released polls based on samples taken over Wednesday and Thursday (available here, here, here, here, and here). These should be reasonably close to how people actually voted, and since they’re all polling all of France at the same time they should be sampling the same distribution of voters. So based on those polls, what’s the likelihood of the exit poll outcome we saw today?

Oh the graph above, the bell curves represent what the last five polls predict, and the horizontal dashed lines indicate the actual exit poll results. For Hollande and Sarkozy, then polling did a good job; the polls are pretty close to the middle of the bell curve. For (despicable bigot) Le Pen, though, the actual vote share was way higher than what the polls predicted. What happened here? There are three possibilities:

  1. The polling agencies all just randomly picked a sample without very many Le Pen voters. As you can see from this graph, this possibility is so far out at the end of the bell curve that it barely even registers.
  2. Lots of people changed their votes over the weekend. Millions of French people woke up Sunday morning with their mind totally changed and marched out to vote for Le Pen even though previously they’d been set on another candidate. This is definitely possible, although Le Pen never touched 20% support in any poll in the last two months.
  3. Voters are lying to pollsters because they don’t want to admit (even to a stranger) that they are the pathetic small-minded racists who would vote for Le Pen.

Almost certain that #3 is what’s going on here. This has scary implications for polling European elections, because it indicates that as voter dissatisfaction with the eurozone and the response of the mainstream parties to the ongoing crisis grows we might see some really unpleasant surprise election results over the next couple years.

Now it’s on to the second round runoff. Based on Le Pen’s strong showing, it seems the likelihood that Sarkozy sneaks through is somewhat higher (if you add the center-right Sarkozy’s vote with the far right Le Pen’s vote it almost comes to 45%)—although there were a lot of voters on the far left who might solidify into a Hollande victory. It’ll probably come down to voter turnout.

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  1. claydols reblogged this from jakke
  2. sweetsputnik reblogged this from jakke and added:
    Haven’t checked in on France in a while but…it looks like I need to do some work on who these candidates are…
  3. bilelbenmiled reblogged this from jakke
  4. moji-moji reblogged this from nezzz
  5. nezzz reblogged this from jakke
  6. fragmentsofasong reblogged this from pol102 and added:
    Oh God Marine Le Pen scares me. She can be charming, and as much as I’d be thrilled for France to have a female premier,...
  7. 17stepsold reblogged this from shortformblog and added:
    Getting live updates from Margaux via text was so exciting. Especially the part where Le Pen way exceeded expectations.
  8. tryingtobefascinating reblogged this from shortformblog and added:
    Reblogging mostly for Leah, but also because what I know of Le Pen is just really fucking terrifying, and I can’t...
  9. alectointhunderland reblogged this from shortformblog and added:
    DUH, it’s option number 3, why is this even a question. At least she didn’t go through to the next round like her father...
  10. jessicathemess reblogged this from shortformblog
  11. pdl2h reblogged this from gtokio
  12. them-witches reblogged this from bonparisien and added:
    France! Get your merde together! I can’t believe that I, as an American of all people, have to be saying this. Goddamn.
  13. gtokio reblogged this from shortformblog
  14. muchtoocynical reblogged this from shortformblog
  15. pol102 reblogged this from shortformblog and added:
    From jakke (via shortformblog): Now it’s on to the second round runoff. Based on Le Pen’s strong showing, it seems the...
  16. verbalresistance reblogged this from shortformblog and added:
    jakke: Good analysis - although it should be noted that it wasn’t entirely out of the blue… I posted this article 3...
  17. pethics reblogged this from bonparisien
  18. i-thaphithin reblogged this from shortformblog and added:
    Ohey, Jakke got reblogged by ShortFormBlog.
  19. close-to-the-edit reblogged this from shortformblog
  20. noctits reblogged this from jakke and added:
    smh just smmfh at le pen getting 20%. single most repulsive and disturbing shit to come out of the election
  21. clubmaintenant reblogged this from shortformblog and added:
    jakke: France had the first round of its presidential election today. To no one’s surprise, Socialist candidate Francois...
  22. idealisticwasteland reblogged this from bonparisien
  23. lajacobine reblogged this from bonparisien
  24. mentapurpura reblogged this from shortformblog

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